Point Spread Betting Football

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Have you ever heard of point spreads? If you are familiar with betting, then your answer to that question is probably a firm yes. Point spreads are one of the most popular wagers when it comes to betting on US sports: football especially. Actually almost everyone who bets on American Football has used point spreads at one time or another.

Football Point Spreads: How They Work The theory with point spreads is that a wager on either team to win a football game is as close to a 505/50 shot as possible. You're not actually betting on which team will win the game, you're betting on which team will 'cover the spread'. Point spread betting is the most common way to wager on football. NFL spreads are used to level the playing field between two teams, setting one team as the favorite and one as the underdog based.

Why are point spreads so popular? The answer is simple; it's because they are so easy to understand. Simple wagers are ALWAYS appealing, particularly for recreational bettors.

Point

People who bet for fun usually don't want to spend too much time or energy worrying about the wagers they are going to place, which makes football point spreads the perfect wager for them. They really don't have to think too hard when it comes to making selections. They have close to a 50/50 chance of picking the right outcome, which means they have a pretty good shot of winning even if they're only guessing.

This brings us to the second reason why people like football point spreads. It's widely believed that they're relatively easy to make money from. As we've just said, there's approximately a 50% chance of a winning a point spread wager. So it stands to reason that most bettors will win such wagers with a reasonable level of frequency. They then convince themselves that it's not too challenging to make a profit from point spread wagers.

This is actually a common misconception. Although there is a little truth to it, it's not 100% accurate. There's a big difference between winning a few wagers and actually showing a profit in the long run. Football point spreads are certainly not the hardest wagers to make money from, but it's a still a challenge to make profits on a regular and consistent basis.

Don't let the challenge put you off the idea of betting on football spreads though. We're only pointing this out to make sure your expectations are realistic. You're on a road to disappointment if you believe that football point spreads represent easy money. That fact is that the bookmakers are very good at setting the spreads in a way that makes them very hard to beat. Plus there's the fact that you're effectively paying a commission (the vig) every time you bet.

Now, none of this means you CAN'T make money from these wagers. It's not easy, but it definitely can be done. The key is to approach them in the right way. The strategy tips we offer on this page will you help you do just that, but you must also be prepared to put in significant time and effort.

If you're not particularly familiar with point spreads and how they work, please read our article on football point spreads and totals.

Our Top Three Tips

We offer a number of tips for betting football point spreads on this page. We're going to start with the three that we feel are especially important. Check out our list below!

  • Shop for the best value
  • Choose games carefully
  • Know which factors affect results

Each one of these tips is pretty basic: maybe even obvious. Regardless, they are all worth following. Please note that if you're not doing these things, then you're harming your chances of making money.

It's also important to remember that these tips apply to most forms of sports betting: not just football point spreads. You'll see them repeated throughout our sports betting guide for this reason. They're important and relevant enough to mention here as well, which is why we'll now spend some time covering them in more detail.

This is an invaluable piece of advice. It's something that all sports bettors should do for all of their wagers. It can have a big impact on overall results in the long run. Best of all, it's very easy to do.

The basic idea is simply that you check the spreads and odds available at different bookmakers or betting sites before putting your money down. This is because bookmakers and betting sites don't always offer the same spreads and odds. The differences aren't usually huge, but they're significant enough to matter. Taking the time to compare what's available allows you to place wagers that offer the best value.

Gaining an extra point on the spread, or even half a point, can be the difference between winning a wager and losing it. Getting just slightly better odds, and therefore better payouts, can have a noticeable impact on your bankroll over time. There really is no easier way to improve your overall betting returns.

Choose games carefully

There's a lot of football games to bet on. The NFL alone features 256 games in the regular season: then there's the playoffs and of course the Super Bowl. When you take into account college football too, this all quickly adds up to a lot of opportunities for placing wagers.

It's vital that you're selective in which games you bet on though. Many bettors feel the need to bet on as many games as they possibly can, figuring this is the best way to make more money. But it isn't. In fact, the opposite is true. You stand a MUCH better chance of winning money if you only bet when you're genuinely confident it's the right move to make. This means picking and choosing which games to bet on and when.

The golden rule here is to only bet when you've identified value in the betting markets.

When we use value in this context, we're referring to the value represented by the odds of any given wager. A wagers only has positive expected value when the estimated chances of it winning are higher than the odds suggest. This might sound a little confusing, but the concept of value in a betting sense isn't especially complicated once you learn the basics. You can learn more by reading our article on betting for value in football.

Before we move, let us reiterate the main point here. If you're trying to predict the outcome of every game, or just betting on games for the sake of it, you ARE going to lose money in the long run.

A lot of people who bet on football are recreational bettors. This means that they basically just bet for the enjoyment they get out of it. They still try to win money, of course, but they don't put a great deal of thought into their wagers. They just look at the spreads and make instinctive judgements about which team has the best chance of covering. It's absolutely fine to bet in this way, as it can indeed be fun. However, it's very unlikely to bring forth a profit.

There are times when it's right to simply rely on your instinct. For the most part, though, you should be carefully considering each and every bet that you place. It might appear obvious that a strong team is easily going to cover a six-point spread, but have you thought about WHY the spread is six points? If you do a little bit of analysis, you might actually be less confident in your initial judgement. The bookmakers generally have solid reasons for why they set a spread at a certain level.

Bookmakers consider a wide range of factors when they are setting the lines for football matches.

Bookmakers don't make money by sheer luck. They are very skilled at what they do, and their lines are hard to beat. If you want to take them on, you need to take into account all the different factors that they do. This is the only way to make properly informed judgements about what's likely to happen.

Our article on assessing the outcome of football games covers all the main factors you should look at when trying to predict results.

More Basic Strategy for Football Point Spreads

Following the above simple tips will immediately put you in a good position for betting football point spreads profitably. They are helpful, but there's still a lot more you need to consider too. Here's some additional advice that we recommend taking on board.

Knowing the key numbers when betting football point spreads is very important. In this context, the term 'key numbers' refers to the most common margins of victory in games. We'll explain why you need to know these in a moment. First, here's a table showing the percentage of NFL games that have been won by specific margins over the years.

Winning MarginPercentage of Games
3 points15.6%
7 points8.7%
10 points6.0%
4 points5.4%
6 points5.4%

The five winning margins shown here account for over 40% of NFL games. This means that nearly half of all games are won by one of these margins.

Knowing these key numbers can be very helpful in deciding which games to bet on, and which games to avoid. It can help you choose which line to take when comparing your options, and it can even provide some insight into which way the bookmakers want you to bet.

For example, let's say you're looking at a game between two closely matched teams. Your bookmaker has made the home team the favorite, and the spread is -4. You're confident that the home team is going to win, so you initially consider betting on them to cover the four points.

Then you take a moment to consider the key numbers. The most likely winning margin for this game is three points. So the chances of them winning by more than four points are probably not significant enough to actual make placing a bet worth it. This is why we would more than likely avoid placing a wager here.

This is a very simplified example, and you'd want to consider other factors too. However, it does serve to illustrate the basic point of referencing key numbers.

Now let's imagine another game, where you're thinking of backing the underdog to cover. You shop around, and find the following two options for placing such a wager.

  • +3 at -105
  • +3.5 at -110

Your immediate reaction might be to take the +3 at the more favorable odds. Remember, though, that a three-point winning margin is likely in this situation. So there's a good chance that this wager would result in a push. Taking the +3.5 at slightly worse odds would probably be the better option here. If the underdog does lose by three points, you're going to win.

In terms of gaining insight into what the bookmakers want you to bet on, be very wary of the following spreads when betting on the favorite.

  • -2.5
  • -6.5
  • -9.5
  • -3.5
  • -5.5

Let us be clear here. We're NOT suggesting that you should never back favorites with these spreads. However, it is important to bear in mind that the bookmakers could be trying to entice you with numbers like this. They allow you to win on key numbers, which means the bookmakers probably think another outcome is more likely.

The same principle applies when looking to back the underdog on the following spreads.

We must reiterate that we're not advocating avoiding these spreads completely. There will be times when the right decision will be to bet on the spread listed above. Just remember that the bookmakers are not stupid. There are usually very good reasons for them setting spreads that allow you to win on key numbers. You can rest assured knowing that these reasons are not set in place for your benefit.

The numbers discussed above all apply to the NFL. There are key numbers for the NCAA too. These aren't quite as significant, simply because the winning margins in college football aren't quite as consistent. For example, the most common winning margin is still 3 points. But this only happens in just over 8% of college football games, as opposed to over 15% in NFL games.

Nonetheless, it's still worth knowing the key numbers if betting on college football. Here's a table with the relevant information.

Winning MarginPercentage of Games
3 points8.3%
7 points6.7%
10 points4.2%
14 points4.1%
4 points4.1%

While on the subject of college football, you should know that NCAA games can sometimes have very big spreads. These games require a unique approach, which we address in the following article.

Dealing with Big Spreads in College Football

Throughout every football season there's invariably a couple of teams that get continuously hyped up. Try not to get taken in by this. There's nothing wrong with backing teams who are well-thought of, but don't make betting decisions based solely on what other people think.

Do your own research to determine if the hype is justified or not.

It's also worth considering that public opinion can have a significant impact on the spreads that bookmakers set. When a well hyped team is playing, the bookmakers will expect a lot of people to bet on that team regardless of the size of the spread. So they'll probably want to make betting on that team less favorable than they otherwise might. The obvious way to do to this is to increase the spread.

Betting College Football Point Spread

Scenarios such as this can actually present opportunities for going AGAINST the hype. The underdog might be given more points than they really should be, meaning they're the team to back. Of course, you can't assume that this is always the right thing to do: not without more information on hand. This is where doing the necessary research becomes so important!

A football team's schedule has a greater effect on performances than most people think. The quality of the opposition they have to face is obviously important, but so is the order in which they have to face them. The schedule can easily effect a team's performance on a game to game basis, and even their overall performance throughout a whole season.

Not convinced? Let's use an extreme example to make the point.

An NFL team plays 16 games in the regular season. For the sake of this example let's say that the average team has eight games against stronger opposition, and eight games against weaker opposition. Which of the following schedules do you think would be the best for a team?

  • The eight games against stronger opposition first, followed by the eight games against weaker opposition.
  • The eight games against weaker opposition first, followed by the eight games against stronger opposition.
  • Games against stronger opposition and games against weaker opposition spread out evenly throughout the season.

A team is likely to suffer if it has to play its eight toughest games consecutively at the start of the season. It would be hard to get any momentum going. Plus, the extra exertion required in these hard games could also prove mentally and physically draining. By the time the eight easier games come around, the team might have lost all confidence and energy.

Starting with the eight easier games is likely to result in a team putting together a good run of results early in the season. This could give them a psychological advantage. But, when the harder games come around, they might find it difficult to suddenly adjust to playing tougher opposition.

Having the easier and harder games spread out evenly throughout the season isn't necessarily perfect either, but it doesn't have the disadvantages mentioned above. So, overall, it's probably the best case scenario.

Of course, the first two scenarios are incredibly unlikely. And the whole example is entirely hypothetical anyway. We're just trying to illustrate the fact that the schedule can (and does) have an impact on teams. It's definitely something to consider when you're looking at games and choosing your bets. You should at least look at how difficult a team's previous couple of games have been, and how difficult their subsequent games are. Then think about what impact that might have on a team for their upcoming game.

Understand the value of stats

The use of statistics can be very helpful when betting on football. Stats come in handy when betting point spreads, as you can use them to get some idea of how a game is likely to play out. This increases your chances of correctly predicting which team is going to cover.

You have to know how to use football statistics effectively though. Don't expect to be able to just look at a few stats and instantly know the likely result of a football game. You have to know which stats to look at, and you have to learn how to interpret them correctly. The article linked above will help you with just that.

Point Spread Betting Football Game

We mentioned earlier how important it is to be selective when betting football points spreads, and how you don't want to bet on every single game. That doesn't mean you should have to narrow your focus either. Some people choose to focus only a few specific teams, and this can be a very limiting approach. Although a narrow focus increases the chances of accurate assessments, it also reduces the number of opportunities for finding value.

So it's important to get the balance right here. The best approach, in our opinion, is to study as many different teams as possible. This includes college teams, not just NFL teams. You're not going to want to bet on each of these teams every time they play, but a wider knowledge means you'll be better placed to identify the right games to bet on when they come up.

Advanced Strategies for Football Point Spreads

One of the biggest appeals of betting football point spreads is that they are so simple. Knowing the basic strategy discussed above is more than enough to have a fair chance of making some money from these types of wager. It honestly doesn't have to be any more complicated than that.

However, there are some more advanced strategies that you might want to consider using. These are a little more complex than everything we've covered so far, but you don't have to be an expert to use them. We recommend reading the following three articles if you are ready to learn more specific strategies that can help you enhance your betting abilities.

Who do you like to cover? What's the spread on the game? These two questions are asked often in sports betting circles.

When you hear them, that means the conversation has turned to the point spread for an upcoming contest. The point spread refers to the line that has been placed on a game by oddsmakers.

Most commonly used in basketball and football betting, it can help to think of the point spread as the estimated margin of victory. For bettors who place a wager on the spread, this number needs to be factored into their handicapping.

At first glance, point spreads can seem confusing and it may look like there's no rhyme or reason to the numbers. That's not the case on either front.

We'll explain everything you need to know about point spread betting right here. Let's begin by taking a look at the best places you can place your bets.

What is a Point Spread?

A point spread is a number that bookmakers will place on a game. Handicappers then need to account for the spread when they are breaking down games.

Point spreads are most commonly used in basketball and football, but there are equivalents used for the other major North American sports. In the NHL, it's referred to as a puck or goal line. For MLB, it's known as a run line.

In both cases, the standard number used is 1.5. When it comes to basketball or football, there's no set value for the point spread. It can range from as small as 0.5 points all the way up into double digits.

One way to look at point spreads is as the presumed gap in strength between the two teams. Let's use a random NFL point spread as an example.

  • New York Giants +3.5
  • Dallas Cowboys -3.5

In this situation, the Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites. Bettors need to decide if the Cowboys are in fact 3.5 points better than the Giants for this contest, and if they will be able to win the game by this amount.

Naturally, there will be plenty of different perspectives on how the contest will play out. There will be bettors who side with the Cowboys minus the points, and those who like the Giants plus the points.

Football

For Cowboys bettors to be correct, the team would need to win by greater than 3.5 points, such as 24-20. On the Giants side, they need to keep it closer than 3.5 points, as in 21-20.

The side that successfully exceeds the margin is viewed as having ‘covered' the spread. You'll come across the term ‘cover' a lot in your research. It effectively means which side will be the winner from a betting perspective when the spread is factored in.

Bet

People who bet for fun usually don't want to spend too much time or energy worrying about the wagers they are going to place, which makes football point spreads the perfect wager for them. They really don't have to think too hard when it comes to making selections. They have close to a 50/50 chance of picking the right outcome, which means they have a pretty good shot of winning even if they're only guessing.

This brings us to the second reason why people like football point spreads. It's widely believed that they're relatively easy to make money from. As we've just said, there's approximately a 50% chance of a winning a point spread wager. So it stands to reason that most bettors will win such wagers with a reasonable level of frequency. They then convince themselves that it's not too challenging to make a profit from point spread wagers.

This is actually a common misconception. Although there is a little truth to it, it's not 100% accurate. There's a big difference between winning a few wagers and actually showing a profit in the long run. Football point spreads are certainly not the hardest wagers to make money from, but it's a still a challenge to make profits on a regular and consistent basis.

Don't let the challenge put you off the idea of betting on football spreads though. We're only pointing this out to make sure your expectations are realistic. You're on a road to disappointment if you believe that football point spreads represent easy money. That fact is that the bookmakers are very good at setting the spreads in a way that makes them very hard to beat. Plus there's the fact that you're effectively paying a commission (the vig) every time you bet.

Now, none of this means you CAN'T make money from these wagers. It's not easy, but it definitely can be done. The key is to approach them in the right way. The strategy tips we offer on this page will you help you do just that, but you must also be prepared to put in significant time and effort.

If you're not particularly familiar with point spreads and how they work, please read our article on football point spreads and totals.

Our Top Three Tips

We offer a number of tips for betting football point spreads on this page. We're going to start with the three that we feel are especially important. Check out our list below!

  • Shop for the best value
  • Choose games carefully
  • Know which factors affect results

Each one of these tips is pretty basic: maybe even obvious. Regardless, they are all worth following. Please note that if you're not doing these things, then you're harming your chances of making money.

It's also important to remember that these tips apply to most forms of sports betting: not just football point spreads. You'll see them repeated throughout our sports betting guide for this reason. They're important and relevant enough to mention here as well, which is why we'll now spend some time covering them in more detail.

This is an invaluable piece of advice. It's something that all sports bettors should do for all of their wagers. It can have a big impact on overall results in the long run. Best of all, it's very easy to do.

The basic idea is simply that you check the spreads and odds available at different bookmakers or betting sites before putting your money down. This is because bookmakers and betting sites don't always offer the same spreads and odds. The differences aren't usually huge, but they're significant enough to matter. Taking the time to compare what's available allows you to place wagers that offer the best value.

Gaining an extra point on the spread, or even half a point, can be the difference between winning a wager and losing it. Getting just slightly better odds, and therefore better payouts, can have a noticeable impact on your bankroll over time. There really is no easier way to improve your overall betting returns.

Choose games carefully

There's a lot of football games to bet on. The NFL alone features 256 games in the regular season: then there's the playoffs and of course the Super Bowl. When you take into account college football too, this all quickly adds up to a lot of opportunities for placing wagers.

It's vital that you're selective in which games you bet on though. Many bettors feel the need to bet on as many games as they possibly can, figuring this is the best way to make more money. But it isn't. In fact, the opposite is true. You stand a MUCH better chance of winning money if you only bet when you're genuinely confident it's the right move to make. This means picking and choosing which games to bet on and when.

The golden rule here is to only bet when you've identified value in the betting markets.

When we use value in this context, we're referring to the value represented by the odds of any given wager. A wagers only has positive expected value when the estimated chances of it winning are higher than the odds suggest. This might sound a little confusing, but the concept of value in a betting sense isn't especially complicated once you learn the basics. You can learn more by reading our article on betting for value in football.

Before we move, let us reiterate the main point here. If you're trying to predict the outcome of every game, or just betting on games for the sake of it, you ARE going to lose money in the long run.

A lot of people who bet on football are recreational bettors. This means that they basically just bet for the enjoyment they get out of it. They still try to win money, of course, but they don't put a great deal of thought into their wagers. They just look at the spreads and make instinctive judgements about which team has the best chance of covering. It's absolutely fine to bet in this way, as it can indeed be fun. However, it's very unlikely to bring forth a profit.

There are times when it's right to simply rely on your instinct. For the most part, though, you should be carefully considering each and every bet that you place. It might appear obvious that a strong team is easily going to cover a six-point spread, but have you thought about WHY the spread is six points? If you do a little bit of analysis, you might actually be less confident in your initial judgement. The bookmakers generally have solid reasons for why they set a spread at a certain level.

Bookmakers consider a wide range of factors when they are setting the lines for football matches.

Bookmakers don't make money by sheer luck. They are very skilled at what they do, and their lines are hard to beat. If you want to take them on, you need to take into account all the different factors that they do. This is the only way to make properly informed judgements about what's likely to happen.

Our article on assessing the outcome of football games covers all the main factors you should look at when trying to predict results.

More Basic Strategy for Football Point Spreads

Following the above simple tips will immediately put you in a good position for betting football point spreads profitably. They are helpful, but there's still a lot more you need to consider too. Here's some additional advice that we recommend taking on board.

Knowing the key numbers when betting football point spreads is very important. In this context, the term 'key numbers' refers to the most common margins of victory in games. We'll explain why you need to know these in a moment. First, here's a table showing the percentage of NFL games that have been won by specific margins over the years.

Winning MarginPercentage of Games
3 points15.6%
7 points8.7%
10 points6.0%
4 points5.4%
6 points5.4%

The five winning margins shown here account for over 40% of NFL games. This means that nearly half of all games are won by one of these margins.

Knowing these key numbers can be very helpful in deciding which games to bet on, and which games to avoid. It can help you choose which line to take when comparing your options, and it can even provide some insight into which way the bookmakers want you to bet.

For example, let's say you're looking at a game between two closely matched teams. Your bookmaker has made the home team the favorite, and the spread is -4. You're confident that the home team is going to win, so you initially consider betting on them to cover the four points.

Then you take a moment to consider the key numbers. The most likely winning margin for this game is three points. So the chances of them winning by more than four points are probably not significant enough to actual make placing a bet worth it. This is why we would more than likely avoid placing a wager here.

This is a very simplified example, and you'd want to consider other factors too. However, it does serve to illustrate the basic point of referencing key numbers.

Now let's imagine another game, where you're thinking of backing the underdog to cover. You shop around, and find the following two options for placing such a wager.

  • +3 at -105
  • +3.5 at -110

Your immediate reaction might be to take the +3 at the more favorable odds. Remember, though, that a three-point winning margin is likely in this situation. So there's a good chance that this wager would result in a push. Taking the +3.5 at slightly worse odds would probably be the better option here. If the underdog does lose by three points, you're going to win.

In terms of gaining insight into what the bookmakers want you to bet on, be very wary of the following spreads when betting on the favorite.

  • -2.5
  • -6.5
  • -9.5
  • -3.5
  • -5.5

Let us be clear here. We're NOT suggesting that you should never back favorites with these spreads. However, it is important to bear in mind that the bookmakers could be trying to entice you with numbers like this. They allow you to win on key numbers, which means the bookmakers probably think another outcome is more likely.

The same principle applies when looking to back the underdog on the following spreads.

We must reiterate that we're not advocating avoiding these spreads completely. There will be times when the right decision will be to bet on the spread listed above. Just remember that the bookmakers are not stupid. There are usually very good reasons for them setting spreads that allow you to win on key numbers. You can rest assured knowing that these reasons are not set in place for your benefit.

The numbers discussed above all apply to the NFL. There are key numbers for the NCAA too. These aren't quite as significant, simply because the winning margins in college football aren't quite as consistent. For example, the most common winning margin is still 3 points. But this only happens in just over 8% of college football games, as opposed to over 15% in NFL games.

Nonetheless, it's still worth knowing the key numbers if betting on college football. Here's a table with the relevant information.

Winning MarginPercentage of Games
3 points8.3%
7 points6.7%
10 points4.2%
14 points4.1%
4 points4.1%

While on the subject of college football, you should know that NCAA games can sometimes have very big spreads. These games require a unique approach, which we address in the following article.

Dealing with Big Spreads in College Football

Throughout every football season there's invariably a couple of teams that get continuously hyped up. Try not to get taken in by this. There's nothing wrong with backing teams who are well-thought of, but don't make betting decisions based solely on what other people think.

Do your own research to determine if the hype is justified or not.

It's also worth considering that public opinion can have a significant impact on the spreads that bookmakers set. When a well hyped team is playing, the bookmakers will expect a lot of people to bet on that team regardless of the size of the spread. So they'll probably want to make betting on that team less favorable than they otherwise might. The obvious way to do to this is to increase the spread.

Betting College Football Point Spread

Scenarios such as this can actually present opportunities for going AGAINST the hype. The underdog might be given more points than they really should be, meaning they're the team to back. Of course, you can't assume that this is always the right thing to do: not without more information on hand. This is where doing the necessary research becomes so important!

A football team's schedule has a greater effect on performances than most people think. The quality of the opposition they have to face is obviously important, but so is the order in which they have to face them. The schedule can easily effect a team's performance on a game to game basis, and even their overall performance throughout a whole season.

Not convinced? Let's use an extreme example to make the point.

An NFL team plays 16 games in the regular season. For the sake of this example let's say that the average team has eight games against stronger opposition, and eight games against weaker opposition. Which of the following schedules do you think would be the best for a team?

  • The eight games against stronger opposition first, followed by the eight games against weaker opposition.
  • The eight games against weaker opposition first, followed by the eight games against stronger opposition.
  • Games against stronger opposition and games against weaker opposition spread out evenly throughout the season.

A team is likely to suffer if it has to play its eight toughest games consecutively at the start of the season. It would be hard to get any momentum going. Plus, the extra exertion required in these hard games could also prove mentally and physically draining. By the time the eight easier games come around, the team might have lost all confidence and energy.

Starting with the eight easier games is likely to result in a team putting together a good run of results early in the season. This could give them a psychological advantage. But, when the harder games come around, they might find it difficult to suddenly adjust to playing tougher opposition.

Having the easier and harder games spread out evenly throughout the season isn't necessarily perfect either, but it doesn't have the disadvantages mentioned above. So, overall, it's probably the best case scenario.

Of course, the first two scenarios are incredibly unlikely. And the whole example is entirely hypothetical anyway. We're just trying to illustrate the fact that the schedule can (and does) have an impact on teams. It's definitely something to consider when you're looking at games and choosing your bets. You should at least look at how difficult a team's previous couple of games have been, and how difficult their subsequent games are. Then think about what impact that might have on a team for their upcoming game.

Understand the value of stats

The use of statistics can be very helpful when betting on football. Stats come in handy when betting point spreads, as you can use them to get some idea of how a game is likely to play out. This increases your chances of correctly predicting which team is going to cover.

You have to know how to use football statistics effectively though. Don't expect to be able to just look at a few stats and instantly know the likely result of a football game. You have to know which stats to look at, and you have to learn how to interpret them correctly. The article linked above will help you with just that.

Point Spread Betting Football Game

We mentioned earlier how important it is to be selective when betting football points spreads, and how you don't want to bet on every single game. That doesn't mean you should have to narrow your focus either. Some people choose to focus only a few specific teams, and this can be a very limiting approach. Although a narrow focus increases the chances of accurate assessments, it also reduces the number of opportunities for finding value.

So it's important to get the balance right here. The best approach, in our opinion, is to study as many different teams as possible. This includes college teams, not just NFL teams. You're not going to want to bet on each of these teams every time they play, but a wider knowledge means you'll be better placed to identify the right games to bet on when they come up.

Advanced Strategies for Football Point Spreads

One of the biggest appeals of betting football point spreads is that they are so simple. Knowing the basic strategy discussed above is more than enough to have a fair chance of making some money from these types of wager. It honestly doesn't have to be any more complicated than that.

However, there are some more advanced strategies that you might want to consider using. These are a little more complex than everything we've covered so far, but you don't have to be an expert to use them. We recommend reading the following three articles if you are ready to learn more specific strategies that can help you enhance your betting abilities.

Who do you like to cover? What's the spread on the game? These two questions are asked often in sports betting circles.

When you hear them, that means the conversation has turned to the point spread for an upcoming contest. The point spread refers to the line that has been placed on a game by oddsmakers.

Most commonly used in basketball and football betting, it can help to think of the point spread as the estimated margin of victory. For bettors who place a wager on the spread, this number needs to be factored into their handicapping.

At first glance, point spreads can seem confusing and it may look like there's no rhyme or reason to the numbers. That's not the case on either front.

We'll explain everything you need to know about point spread betting right here. Let's begin by taking a look at the best places you can place your bets.

What is a Point Spread?

A point spread is a number that bookmakers will place on a game. Handicappers then need to account for the spread when they are breaking down games.

Point spreads are most commonly used in basketball and football, but there are equivalents used for the other major North American sports. In the NHL, it's referred to as a puck or goal line. For MLB, it's known as a run line.

In both cases, the standard number used is 1.5. When it comes to basketball or football, there's no set value for the point spread. It can range from as small as 0.5 points all the way up into double digits.

One way to look at point spreads is as the presumed gap in strength between the two teams. Let's use a random NFL point spread as an example.

  • New York Giants +3.5
  • Dallas Cowboys -3.5

In this situation, the Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites. Bettors need to decide if the Cowboys are in fact 3.5 points better than the Giants for this contest, and if they will be able to win the game by this amount.

Naturally, there will be plenty of different perspectives on how the contest will play out. There will be bettors who side with the Cowboys minus the points, and those who like the Giants plus the points.

For Cowboys bettors to be correct, the team would need to win by greater than 3.5 points, such as 24-20. On the Giants side, they need to keep it closer than 3.5 points, as in 21-20.

The side that successfully exceeds the margin is viewed as having ‘covered' the spread. You'll come across the term ‘cover' a lot in your research. It effectively means which side will be the winner from a betting perspective when the spread is factored in.

There will also be odds attached to point spreads. We'll cover that in more detail in a bit.

How to Bet the Spread?

Since the point spread is most commonly used in basketball and football, we'll be focusing on those two sports for the remainder of the article. In both sports, the point spread is used on both the Pro and College side.

Let's walk through some examples for all of the major point spread sports, starting with the NBA. Here's the line and spread for a fictitious game.

  • Milwaukee Bucks +1.5 (-110)
  • Toronto Raptors -1.5 (-110)

The Raptors are favored by 1.5 points, indicating a potentially tight game. After doing your research, you decide you like Toronto to win by more than 1.5 points.

As it turns out, the Bucks wind up winning a close one by a score of 100-98. Not only did the Raptors fail to cover the spread, but they lost the game, so your ticket is a loser. If Toronto had come out on top by the same margin, you would have had a winner.

Next, let's take a look at the spread and betting odds for a random College Basketball game.

  • Purdue +.4.5 (-110)
  • Michigan State -4.5 (-110)

The Spartans are 4.5 point favorites for this tilt, but you like the way the Boilermakers are playing and think they can keep it close. When the final whistle blows, Michigan State hangs on for a 72-69 win.

Point Spread Betting Football Odds

The Spartans have won the game, but the margin of victory was lower than the spread. Those who bet on Michigan State minus the points have losing tickets, but bettors on Purdue plus the points such as yourself are winners.

The point spread works the same way when betting on College Football and the NFL. Oddsmakers will designate a favorite and an underdog, and then they'll add a point spread into the mix.

  • Cleveland Browns +6.5 (-110)
  • New England Patriots -6.5 (-110)

The Patriots are pretty big favorites for this one. If you bet on them with the spread attached, they'll have to win the game by seven or more points. For a bet on the Browns with the spread, the team will at least need to keep the margin to six points or under.

The favored status of New England proves to be prescient, as they go on to win by a score of 27-17. The 10-point margin of victory means that they covered the spread, while Cleveland has failed to do so.

For our final example, let's move over to College Football for an imaginary inter-conference clash.

  • Wisconsin +2.5 (-110)
  • Texas A&M -2.5 (-110)

While the Badgers are the underdogs for this contest, the game is expected to be tight. Oddsmakers have placed the spread at less than a field goal as a result. When the final whistle blows, the Aggies escape with a 28-27 win.

Underdog Wisconsin has lost, but they kept it close and covered the spread. Bettors on that side have a winning ticket to cash, while those who wagered on Texas A&M minus the points move on to fight another day.

As with all other sports betting concepts, the more you are exposed to point spreads, the easier they become to understand.

Point Spread Odds and Line Moves

After oddsmakers release the spread and odds for a slate of games, the betting market has a chance to weigh in. That can lead to shifts in both cases depending on market action.

Let's say a spread for an NFL game is released at 3.5 points. A flurry of public money comes in on one side of the coin. Oddsmakers respond by raising the spread up to 4 points.

So why did the spread tick up? In this case, we can interpret it to mean that a good amount of money came in on the favorite minus the points. To make the game more attractive on the underdog side, the sportsbook has added some more incentive in the form of a half-point.

On the odds front, we may see the same thing. Odds of -110 are pretty standard for point spread bets. If a book takes in more action on one side over the other – but not enough to justify moving the spread – then the odds can shift a little.

For example, a majority of the money coming in the favorite could lead odds on that side to change to -115, while odds on the underdog side are adjusted down to -105. This may influence the direction they go and even out the action for the sportsbook a bit, which is the goal they have when adjusting odds.

Odds and spreads can also move when a piece of news drops that could impact the outcome of the game. A major injury, lineup change, or trade are among the scenarios that could have such an impact.

For point spread betting, it's always a good idea to check out the opening lines and compare them to where they are when you begin handicapping the game. This can alert you to market sentiment on the game, or potentially a piece of news that you may have missed.

How to Handicap Point Spreads

While handicapping for point spreads may seem complex when you're first starting out, it really doesn't have to be. It can be as difficult or easy as you make it, and there's absolutely nothing wrong with keeping it simple.

First things first, there are resources out there – both free and subscription-based – which provide picks against the spread. Some are good, some are average, and others aren't so great.

Football Point Spread Betting

If you're going this route, a good rule of thumb is to find a few trusted resources – three will do the trick – and compare the picks to help form your own consensus. As always, practice due diligence when selecting sources and don't just blindly trust the words of one as gospel.

For those who would like to do their own handicapping, it's helpful to start with a simple process and build it out from that point.

First things first, study the lines and odds for the games on the slate. Recognize what the market is telling you, and examine any shifts from open to present time.

Next, consider the overall strength of the teams involved, as well as how much of a difference homefield or home court advantage may make. Oddsmakers have this factored in on their side, but it's important for you to consider it as well.

One thing that can be very helpful is finding a set of power rankings that you can trust and use regularly. Power rankings rate the teams in the league from top to bottom and attach a number to each squad which represents their overall strength.

You can then compare these two numbers and account for home advantage. The difference will point you to a reasonable point spread, which you can then compare to the actual spread.

Power rankings can be found on subscription-based sports betting sites, but there are also a number of excellent resources on the interwebs which are completely free.

Afterwards, it's time to examine the teams on a statistical basis. It's very easy to get lost down the rabbit hole here, so stick to what really moves the needle when beginning, such as points for and against.

For football, you can also check out yards for and against. In basketball, lean towards things that truly impact the game, such as overall shooting percentage and turnover rates.

Once you have a good handle on examining the basic stats, you can add additional factors to provide a more well-rounded picture.

Last but not least, check out recent form for both sides. Teams go through hot and cold streaks, and current momentum can be a solid guide for what's to come in the near future.

After you have gone through all of these factors, you can go through your own personal checklist to determine which side is better on all fronts. Taking the time to break down all of these factors should lead you to a choice that you feel comfortable with.

As your experience with handicapping point spreads increases, you may decide to add additional variables to the equation. You can make your own personal system as complex or as simple as you would like.

The choice is completely up to you and what works best for your strategy. As always, the bottom line is what type of process will lead you to positive results more often than not.

The Bottom Line on Point Spreads

Point spreads are most commonly used for betting on basketball or football. Oddsmakers will designate a number for each contest, and bettors will then need to factor that into their handicapping.

Bettors can wager on the favorite minus the points, or the underdog plus the points. If you think of the spread like a potential margin of victory, then that means the favorite needs to win by more than the spread, while the underdog needs to keep the game closer than that.

The standard odds for point spread bets are typically -110, but there will be shifts based on market action or news that develops after lines are released. The spread itself can also shift based on those same factors.

Nfl Scores And Point Spreads

It's a good idea to track how odds and spreads have moved from the open until the time you are ready to place bets. This can give you a sense of market direction and also help you spot factors you may have missed.

Betting Spreads Explained

Handicapping point spreads can be confusing at first, but a simple process such as the one outlined in this article can help you get the hang of it quickly. As you move along, you can also personalize the process to better fit your style.

Point Spread Betting Football Predictions

In addition, there are also free and subscription-based resources which provide picks against the spread. If you decide to pursue that path, it's a good idea to gather multiple sources and attempt to find a consensus.





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